Odds, predictions, standings, and expert analysis for every NBA game
Keon Ellis
Last: vs Detroit Pistons · Tipped off 7:30 PM ET · this page updates each morning
Points by game
The Edge
Role and usageEllis's profile stands out most on potential assists per game (62nd percentile) and true shooting (22nd percentile). Latest snapshot 2026-10-30.
Early sample: percentiles among players with 2+ games.
Our pick
Keon Ellis under 5.5 points
Read our reasoning
L10 over only 3/10 (avg 3.4, range 0-9), L20 over 5/20. vs DET last season (8g): 3.8 PPG — the largest historical sample of any BKN player vs this opponent, and it's well below the 5.5 line. Season avg of 5.8 PPG over 4 games is a small sample that likely overstates his true floor. MPG of 24.1 in a limited role behind higher-usage players. Under 5.5 has a 70% hit rate in L10 context and strong matchup backing.
Points against the line
Recorded line 5.5 · Points · as of Oct 27
2026-27 season · all games played, playoffs included · game log · through 2026-10-27
Hit rate by situation · 2026-27 · against the recorded line 5.5
home, away, back-to-back, 2+ days rest and in losses splits have fewer than 10 games this season and are not shown yet.
This season's games only · historical frequency, not a forecast.
Where he scores
33% of his shots come from threes above the break, where he makes 25%, 9.3 percentage points below the league rate there (8 attempts so far).
- Restricted area80%▲ 13.8 vs league21% of attempts · 5 FGA · small sample
- Three-pointers29%▼ 5.7 vs league58% of attempts · 14 FGA · small sample
- Mid-range0%▼ 40.0 vs league4% of attempts · 1 FGA · small sample
- Share of attempts
- FG% above league
- below
- under 20 attempts
Where he shoots from, against the league
- Restricted area21% / 29%4 of 5 · 80% FG against 66% for the league
- Paint (non-restricted)17% / 19%2 of 4 · 50% FG against 44% for the league
- Mid-range4% / 10%0 of 1 · 0% FG against 40% for the league
- Left corner 317% / 6%1 of 4 · 25% FG against 34% for the league
- Right corner 38% / 5%1 of 2 · 50% FG against 34% for the league
- Above-the-break 333% / 31%2 of 8 · 25% FG against 34% for the league
Matchup: vs Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons defense
Who guards him, then team ratings and what they allow to guards.
Who guards him
Last season (2025-26): no defender on this roster has guarded him for 5+ partial possessions this season yet. Ronald Holland II has guarded him most: 19.4 partial possessions, 5 points on 2 of 4.
2025-26 matchups · roster as of Oct 30 · defender ratings as of Oct 30. Tough, average or soft is the defender's own FG% allowed against the league (top, middle or bottom third), shown only for defenders in the league ranking.
Team defense
Detroit Pistons: the 5th-best defense at a slow pace; stingy against guards on points.
Allowed-to-guards figures use 2025-26 (last season), 346 guard-games against DET · team ratings over 5 games, snapshot 2026-10-30.
8 meetings on record: 3.8 points, 1.0 rebounds, 0.4 assists per game (last on May 17). The vs DET window above shows each game.
DET injury report · Oct 30
- Jalen Duren · Out
- Isaiah Joe · Day-to-day
Lineup context
Team ratings with him on and off the floor.
On and off
The team is 12.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor (small sample: under 100 minutes on one side).
- Net rating
Offensive and defensive rating
- Offensive rating
- Defensive rating (lower is better)
Points per 100 possessions · 3 games · as of Oct 26.
Game log & career
Data availability
Coverage dates show how far the available figures extend.
Available
Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-26.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-27.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
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Observations through 2026-10-30.
